Key Points

• Hydrogen Fuel Cell: One of the technological routes for new energy vehicles, facing the challenge of high costs.
• SPAC Listing: Special Purpose Acquisition Company, a new way for enterprises to go public.
• Lack of Prototype Vehicles: The core issue that Nikola is questioned about, lacking product verification.
• Data Advantage: The core competitiveness of Tesla's autonomous driving.
• Resource Integration: The key differentiator in the capabilities of new - energy vehicle startups.

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Abstract

The US new energy vehicle market is experiencing severe fluctuations. The stock price of Nikola, a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle manufacturer, plunged by 20% due to a short - selling report, and its technological feasibility and business integrity have been questioned. In contrast, Tesla has achieved a market value breakthrough through data accumulation and technological leadership, while Chinese new - energy vehicle startups like XPeng and NIO have shown strong growth potential. This episode deeply analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of different technological routes, reveals core issues such as insufficient hydrogen energy infrastructure and verification of mass - production capabilities, and points out that the IP value of founders and resource integration capabilities have become the key competitiveness of emerging vehicle manufacturers.

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Insights

The hydrogen energy track not only exposes technological bottlenecks but also tests the sustainability of business models. Although traditional automakers such as Toyota have continued to invest, the cost of hydrogen fuel at $16 per gallon still lacks competitiveness compared with traditional energy sources. Notably, Tesla has built a moat with 14 billion miles of real - driving data, which validates the strategic value of data assets in the era of smart cars. The Internet - thinking - based vehicle manufacturing model demonstrated by Chinese new - energy vehicle startups may provide a new paradigm for the global automotive industry transformation.

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Views

01 "Technological Routes Determine Business Ceilings"

"The price of hydrogen fuel is 16 times that of gasoline, and the infrastructure cost remains high." Although hydrogen energy has environmental advantages, the high costs in storage, transportation, and refueling hinder the commercialization process.

02 "Mass - Production Capability Is the Dividing Line for Valuation"

From prototype vehicles to mass production, complex challenges such as manufacturing processes and supply - chain management need to be overcome. Nikola hasn't even completed a prototype vehicle.

03 "Data Assets Build Competitive Barriers"

Tesla has established an autonomous - driving advantage through 14 billion miles of real - driving data, leading competitors such as Waymo.

04 "Founder IP Empowers Brand Value"

Elon Musk's influencer effect has saved Tesla huge marketing expenses. Emerging vehicle manufacturers generally lack a soul figure.

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In - depth Analysis

The Upheaval in the US New Energy Vehicle Market: The Dispute over Technological Routes and the Reconstruction of Valuation Logic

The capital market in September 2020 recorded a dramatic scene: Nikola, a six - year - old hydrogen fuel cell vehicle manufacturer, was short - sold three days after General Motors announced its investment, and its stock price plunged by 20% in a single day. This storm has uncovered the sharpest wound in the technological - route competition in the new energy vehicle industry.

The Utopian Dilemma of Hydrogen Energy

"This is essentially a cost - related math problem," pointed out Yu Liang, a guest on the program. The price tag of hydrogen fuel at $16 per gallon is particularly eye - catching compared with gasoline at $1 per gallon. The high - cost hydrogen refueling station in Northern California has become an epitome of the commercialization dilemma of hydrogen energy - it was promoted and built by Schwarzenegger a decade ago and is still a regional pilot project. The problems exposed by Nikola are more typical. This company, which went public through SPAC, has neither a prototype vehicle nor has it broken through the cost bottleneck of core fuel - cell technology. The natural - gas industry background of its founder, Trevor Milton, and the team composed of traditional automaker executives are far from the image of a "disruptor." Interestingly, industrial capitals such as Bosch continue to invest. This reflects the basic logic of new - energy investment: "You have to place 5% - 10% of your chips in all tracks because no one dares to bet that the technology will never make a breakthrough," explained Yu Liang. However, this scatter - gun strategy is facing stricter market tests.

Tesla's "Data Hegemony"

In contrast, the competitive barriers built by Tesla are amazing. The key data disclosed in the program are worthy of attention:

• 14 billion miles of real - driving data, far exceeding Waymo's 20 million miles.
• 81.66% of the US electric vehicle market share.
• 20% of the gross profit margin, which continues to be optimized. "This is not simply an electric vehicle company but a data - driven technology enterprise," emphasized Yu Liang. Through the multi - climate and multi - road - condition data accumulated by global car owners, Tesla's autonomous - driving system has a unique evolution ability. The Matthew effect formed by this data asset is reconstructing the industry valuation system.

The Rise Logic of Chinese Forces

The program's analysis of Chinese new - energy vehicle startups is quite inspiring. NIO has established a foothold in the high - end market with its resource integration capabilities and user - operation thinking, while XPeng has shown stronger technological originality but still has a gap in systematic capabilities. A key insight is: Against the backdrop of the gradually homogenized performance parameters of electric vehicles, the IP value of founders has become the core element of differentiation. The Internet backgrounds of Li Bin and He Xiaopeng have injected a technological gene lacking in traditional automakers into their brands.

The Next Stop of Industrial Transformation

As Tesla may be included in the S&P 500 index, the new energy vehicle industry is moving from the technology - verification stage to the scale - expansion stage. However, the deep - seated contradictions revealed in the program still exist:

• Technological Routes: The game between lithium - ion batteries and hydrogen fuel cells will continue.
• Manufacturing Capabilities: The journey from the laboratory to mass production remains a death valley.
• Data War: The essence of the competition in intelligent driving is the competition of data ecosystems. This transformation is far from over. When the capital market starts to scrutinize every technological promise under a microscope, the case of Nikola may only be the beginning of the industry's bubble - squeezing process. Those enterprises that truly build triple barriers of technology, data, and ecosystem will win the future in the reshuffle.