#28 What's going on in the self-driving car race as Musk and Bezos argue about it?
Key Points
- Autonomous Driving Logistics: A niche segment that has accelerated its development after the pandemic
- Commercialization of Robotaxi: Leading companies have started trial - operation fleets
- Strategic Cooperation between Automobile Manufacturers: A crucial path for the survival of autonomous driving startups
- Data Monetization: A new profit - growth point in the automotive industry
- New Retail Transformation: A digital revolution in automobile sales
Abstract
Amazon's acquisition of Zoox for $1.2 billion marks the official entry of tech giants into the autonomous driving logistics segment. In this issue of Silicon Valley Early Know, we connected with Qi Lei, the global investment director of Alliance Venture, to conduct an in - depth analysis of the three major trends in the autonomous driving industry after the pandemic: accelerated commercialization in the logistics field (such as TuSimple's cooperation with UPS to establish an unmanned freight network), Robotaxi entering the trial - operation stage (Waymo opening public services in Arizona), and the solidification of the cooperation model between automobile manufacturers and startups. It is specifically pointed out that Zoox missed the development window due to its closed - off technical approach, while Chinese player WeRide is leading the way in Robotaxi implementation with hundreds of test vehicles. Industry consensus shows that fully autonomous driving still requires a five - year incubation period, but the commercialization of niche scenarios is showing signs of hope.
Insights
The explosion of autonomous driving in logistics confirms the industry rule that "crises catalyze innovation." The labor shortage caused by the pandemic and the surge in e - commerce demand have forced companies like UPS and Amazon to accelerate technology deployment. Notably, there are differences in the development paths between China and the United States: The United States is promoting long - distance freight based on its mature highway network, while China is focusing on low - speed scenarios in closed parks. In the long run, data assets will become the core competitiveness of automobile manufacturers, and the digital transformation of the sales model may reshape the industry landscape earlier than autonomous driving technology.
Views
01 "The window period for autonomous driving in logistics has arrived"
"The pandemic made logistics companies realize that they must promote unmanned operations. The cooperation between UPS and TuSimple was launched six months earlier than originally planned."
- The shortage of long - distance freight drivers and cost pressure create a strong demand.
- The technological maturity of highway scenarios is higher than that of urban roads.
02 "Breakthroughs in closed - off scenarios first"
- Waymo chose Arizona for testing to avoid complex road conditions.
- WeRide is operating hundreds of Robotaxis on Guangzhou's Bio Island.
- It is easier to achieve a commercial closed - loop in restricted areas such as parks and ports.
03 "Cooperation with automobile manufacturers determines survival"
"The period from 2014 to 2020 has proven that autonomous driving startups without the support of automobile manufacturers will inevitably be eliminated."
- Zoox missed cooperation opportunities by refusing to have open technical communication.
- Cruise (backed by General Motors) and Argo (backed by Ford) confirm the value of synergy.
In - depth Analysis
Autonomous driving enters an era of differentiation: The logistics segment is sprinting, while the Robotaxi race continues
A wake - up call for the industry with a $1.2 - billion valuation
When Amazon announced the acquisition of Zoox, this once - star startup, which was once valued at $3.2 billion, had fallen from grace. According to Qi Lei, the global investment director of Alliance Venture, Zoox's decline is a textbook case: The founding team was obsessed with "reinventing the wheel," independently developing full - stack technologies such as lidar and vehicle platforms, but lacked cooperation with automobile manufacturers, resulting in insufficient data accumulation. "They probably had no more than 20 test vehicles, while Waymo has thousands." This kind of technological idealism is fatal in the field of autonomous driving, which requires scale verification.
The logistics segment rises unexpectedly
In sharp contrast to Zoox is TuSimple's pragmatic approach. This company, co - founded by Chinese and American parties, has launched the first three - phase unmanned freight network plan in the United States in cooperation with logistics giants such as UPS and Penske after the pandemic. Qi Lei pointed out the key difference: "The U.S. highway transportation network has a high level of maturity, and freight does not involve safety concerns related to carrying passengers, making long - distance trucks the best implementation scenario." Notably, after Amazon's acquisition of Zoox, its logistics map now covers electric trucks (investment in Rivian), last - mile delivery (R & D of Scout), and now medium - and long - distance transportation, constructing a complete autonomous driving logistics matrix.
Differentiated competition among Chinese players
On the other side of the ocean, WeRide is quietly taking the lead through a "rural - encircling - the - city" strategy. The hundreds of Robotaxis it has deployed in Guangzhou have received over 100,000 real passengers in total. This gradual expansion contrasts with Waymo's aggressive testing. Industry analysts believe that China's complex road conditions force companies to pay more attention to the development of "explainable AI," and the test areas supported by policies provide a valuable data flywheel. However, Qi Lei warns: "The real test lies in whether regional experience can be quickly replicated. Didi and Pony.ai are both vying for limited high - quality scenarios."
The undercurrent of data assetization is surging
While most people's attention is focused on autonomous driving technology itself, the industry has quietly launched a data war. Automobile manufacturers are starting to accept the new model of "sharing data in exchange for profits," and the valuations of data trading platforms built by startups such as Autonomo are skyrocketing. This change stems from dual pressures: Global automobile sales have declined for three consecutive years, while Tesla has achieved a profit margin of up to 30% through data -增值 services. "The future competition is not only about who can build autonomous driving cars, but also about who can make data generate compound value," Qi Lei summarized.
Strategic choices at the five - year critical point
Standing at the critical point of 2020, the industry consensus is that Level 4 autonomous driving still requires a five - year maturation period. During this period, companies face three path choices: adhering to technological perfectionism like Waymo, focusing on vertical scenario monetization like TuSimple, or learning from Tesla to iterate through user - crowdsourced data. Interestingly, the once - considered "heretical" Tesla model is being re - evaluated for its data acquisition efficiency. As Qi Lei said: "This industry is shifting from technological romanticism to pragmatism. The companies that survive may not be the ones with the strongest technology, but they must be the ones that understand the essence of business best."