Key
- Foldable smartphones: Smartphones with bendable screens, representing a major innovation in the smartphone market in recent years.
- Flexible OLED screens: A key component of foldable smartphones. Cost reduction is an important factor driving the popularization of foldable phones.
- Hinges: The mechanical structure connecting the two sides of a foldable screen. The yield rate of hinges directly affects the cost and durability of foldable smartphones.
- Market share: Reflects the proportion of foldable smartphones in the overall smartphone market. Currently, foldable phones still belong to a niche market.
- Brand premium: High - priced foldable smartphones are used to establish a brand's image and technological strength in the high - end market.
Abstract
As the competition in the smartphone market becomes increasingly homogeneous, foldable smartphones, as a differentiated innovation, are becoming a new focus for major manufacturers to compete for market share. Although foldable smartphones still belong to the niche market at present, their shipment volume is growing at an astonishing speed. The cost reduction, especially the maturity of flexible OLED screen and hinge technologies, is the key factor driving the popularization of foldable smartphones. Major manufacturers are trying to meet the needs of different consumer groups through foldable phone products of different forms, such as large horizontal - folding and small vertical - folding phones. However, the actual user experience and application scenarios of foldable smartphones still need to be further explored. The future development space of foldable phones depends on whether they can truly meet the core needs of consumers.
Insights
The rise of foldable smartphones indicates that the smartphone industry is entering a new stage driven by innovation. Manufacturers are no longer only focusing on improving hardware configurations but are paying more attention to the differentiation of product forms and user experiences. The success or failure of foldable smartphones will directly affect the future development direction of smartphones and consumers' acceptance of innovative products. At the same time, the improvement of the foldable smartphone industry chain will also drive the rapid development of related industries such as flexible OLED screens and hinges.
Views
01 "Technological innovation is the core driving force for the development of foldable smartphones."
The continuous progress of flexible OLED screen and hinge technologies has directly reduced the production cost of foldable smartphones and improved the user experience, laying a foundation for the popularization of foldable phones.
02 "Differentiated competition is an important strategy for manufacturers to layout foldable smartphones."
Against the backdrop of the overall decline of the smartphone market, foldable smartphones have become an important way for manufacturers to seek new growth points and enhance their brand image.
03 "User demand is the key factor determining the future development of foldable smartphones."
Whether foldable smartphones can truly meet users' needs for large screens, portability, photography, etc., will directly determine their market prospects and development potential.
In - depth Analysis
Foldable Smartphones: The Counterattack of the Niche Market and Future Speculations
In the current situation where innovation in the smartphone market is sluggish and homogeneous competition is intensifying, the emergence of foldable smartphones has undoubtedly brought a breath of fresh air to the industry. Major manufacturers have flocked to this field, trying to find new growth points in the existing market through this new product form. However, foldable smartphones still belong to a niche market at present, and their future development path is full of challenges and opportunities.
Market Status: Niche Players with High - speed Growth
According to IDC statistics, the global shipment volume of foldable smartphones in 2020 was only 1.94 million units. But by 2024, Trendforce expects the shipment volume to reach 17.8 million units, nearly a nine - fold increase in four years. Despite the astonishing growth rate, the shipment volume of 17.8 million units only accounts for 1.5% of the total smartphone market. Foldable smartphones are still a veritable niche market.
In the Chinese market, foldable smartphones also show a trend of high - speed growth. In 2023, the shipment volume of foldable smartphones in China was about 7 million units, with a year - on - year growth of over 100% for four consecutive years. However, compared with the total shipment volume of 271 million smartphones in China in 2023, 7 million foldable smartphones still seem insignificant.
Price Factor: The Key Bottleneck Restricting Popularization
Price is an important factor restricting the popularization of foldable smartphones. According to the research of Arixin Consulting and Huafu Securities, the average selling price of foldable smartphones in 2021 exceeded 12,000 yuan. Although it dropped to more than 8,000 yuan in 2023, it is still much higher than the market average selling price of less than 3,000 yuan. The high price has kept most consumers away, making it difficult for foldable smartphones to truly enter the mass market.
Technological Breakthrough: The Driving Force behind Cost Reduction
The price reduction of foldable smartphones is inseparable from key technological breakthroughs and cost reduction. The core costs of foldable smartphones are mainly reflected in two aspects: hinges and flexible OLED screens.
Hinges are the mechanical structures connecting the two sides of a foldable screen. The yield rate of hinges directly affects the cost and durability of foldable smartphones. In the past, the yield rate of hinges was always low. But with the progress of technology, currently, the better suppliers can increase the yield rate to 70% - 80%, and the market average level has also reached 50% - 60%.
Flexible OLED screens are another key component of foldable smartphones. In recent years, with the large - scale involvement of Chinese suppliers, the cost of flexible OLED screens has been significantly reduced. According to Display Daily statistics, in 2022, the price of flexible OLED screens on mobile phones was 2.5 times that of rigid OLED screens and 3 times that of traditional LCD screens. By mid - 2024, this gap has narrowed to about 1.6 times and 2 times respectively.
Manufacturers' Strategies: Seeking New Growth Spaces
Against the backdrop of the overall decline of the smartphone market, major manufacturers are increasing their investment in foldable smartphones, trying to find new growth spaces. For mobile phone manufacturers, they must constantly find product innovation points that can stimulate consumers in order to grab more shares from the shrinking market.
In addition to seeking growth, foldable smartphones are also an important means for manufacturers to establish their brand image. For example, Huawei launched a triple - foldable smartphone with a price close to 20,000 yuan. One of the important motives is to establish a high - end brand image in the segmented market.
User Demand: The Key to Determining Future Development
Ultimately, consumer electronics products depend on whether they can meet users' needs. From the product form of foldable smartphones, large horizontal - folding phones are mainly targeted at groups with a need for large screens, while small vertical - folding phones are more targeted at consumers who value portability and photography functions.
However, apart from large screens and portability, how much additional experience can foldable smartphones bring to users? This is a question worthy of in - depth thinking. If the industrial foundation and resource investment determine the lower limit of the popularization of foldable smartphones, then consumers' real needs determine its upper limit.
Future Speculations: Opportunities and Challenges Coexist
Looking ahead, the foldable smartphone market still faces many challenges. How to further reduce costs, improve the user experience, and expand application scenarios are important issues for manufacturers.
At the same time, foldable smartphones also hold great opportunities. With the continuous progress of technology and the increasing diversification of consumer needs, foldable smartphones are expected to occupy a larger share in the smartphone market.
The future of foldable smartphones depends not only on technology and cost but also on whether manufacturers can truly understand users' needs and integrate them into product design and marketing strategies. Only by truly meeting users' needs can foldable smartphones get rid of the label of the niche market and move towards a broader stage.